Source: Statistics Canada
In 2024, Canadian farmers are projected to produce more wheat, oats and soybeans, but less canola, corn for grain and barley, compared with 2023, according to recent yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data.
The September publication of the Field Crop Reporting Series is a joint release between Statistics Canada and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Statistics Canada, in collaboration with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, has relied upon proven satellite technology to model preliminary crop yields and production since 2016. These methods have successfully been used for the past nine years to produce August yield estimates, and they replaced July survey yield estimates beginning in 2020.
Across parts of the Prairies, lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged high temperatures have resulted in a decline in crop conditions from the beginning of the season, although conditions were up in some areas compared with a year earlier. In Alberta, provincial reports indicated that conditions decreased throughout the month of August, with 43% of the total crop rated as being in good to excellent condition at the end of August, down from 51% at the end of July, and below the five-year average. In Saskatchewan, some areas have been impacted by hot and dry conditions, especially in southern parts of the province. Provincial reports from Manitoba indicated that precipitation at this time remains above average, while temperatures have been in line with normal.
In Ontario and Quebec, crops appear to be progressing well, but some areas of Ontario may have been impacted by excess moisture and high temperatures. The Atlantic provinces have experienced warmer weather and less rainfall than average since the beginning of the growing season.
Map 1 
Departure from average precipitation (in millimetres) from April 1 to August 31, 2024 (during the growing season), by province
Map 2
Mean temperature difference from normal (in degrees Celsius) from August 1 to August 31, 2024 (during the growing season), by province
Measurements of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index produced using satellite data indicate that overall plant health in the Prairie provinces ranged from much lower than normal to higher than normal at the end of August. This suggests the possibility of yields much lower than normal to similar to normal.
Crop development in Eastern Canada generally ranged from lower than normal to similar to normal in August.
Map 3
Vegetation growth index as of the week of August 26 to September 1, 2024, compared with normal, by census consolidated subdivision for Western Canada
Map 4
Vegetation growth index as of the week of August 26 to September 1, 2024, compared with normal, by census consolidated subdivision for Eastern Canada
Wheat production is expected to increase as yields rise
Nationally, wheat production is projected to grow by 4.1% year over year to 34.3 million tonnes in 2024. The increase is expected to be led by higher yields, which are anticipated to rise by 5.7% to 48.4 bushels per acre. Harvested area is expected to decrease by 1.6% to 26.0 million acres.
Spring wheat production is expected to fall by 1.0% to 25.3 million tonnes. Spring wheat yields are anticipated to increase by 2.5% to 50.1 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to decrease by 3.4% to 18.5 million acres.
The anticipated increase in total wheat production is largely attributable to durum wheat. Harvested area is expected to increase by 5.3% to 6.2 million acres, while yields are anticipated to jump by 40.2% to 35.9 bushels per acre, contributing to higher anticipated durum wheat production (+47.6% to 6.0 million tonnes).
Wheat harvested area in Saskatchewan is projected to decrease by 0.6%, while yields are expected to rise by 9.8% to 42.5 bushels per acre, resulting in a 9.0% increase in production, to 16.0 million tonnes.
Wheat production in Alberta is projected to increase by 10.7% to 10.3 million tonnes, compared with 2023. This rise in 2024 is anticipated to result from higher yields (+12.1% to 50.1 bushels per acre) offsetting lower harvested area, which is expected to fall by 1.1% to 7.6 million acres.
In Manitoba, wheat harvested area is expected to decline by 2.1% to 3.2 million acres, while yields are anticipated to decrease by 6.9% to 57.1 bushels per acre. Total wheat production is anticipated to fall by 8.8% year over year to 5.0 million tonnes.
Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to decrease by 16.6% year over year to 2.5 million tonnes on lower harvested acres (-11.6%) and lower yields (-5.5%).
Canola production anticipated to decrease
Nationally, canola production is projected to decrease by 1.1% to 19.0 million tonnes in 2024. This decrease in production is anticipated to be driven by lower yields, which are projected to fall by 0.8% to 38.4 bushels per acre, and harvested area is expected to edge down by 0.4% to 21.8 million acres.
Saskatchewan is expected to produce 0.4% less canola in 2024 than in 2023, at 10.3 million tonnes. Yields are projected to increase by 1.9% to 37.7 bushels per acre in 2024, while harvested area is expected to decline by 2.3% to 12.0 million acres.
Production in Alberta is expected to decrease by 1.7% to 5.5 million tonnes. The decrease is the result of anticipated lower yields (-2.0% to 38.3 bushels per acre), while harvested area is projected to remain unchanged (6.3 million acres).
In Manitoba, yields are expected to decrease by 7.4% to 41.0 bushels per acre, while harvested area is anticipated to rise 5.7% to 3.3 million acres, resulting in a 2.2% decrease in production to 3.1 million tonnes.
Corn for grain production is projected to decrease
Nationally, corn for grain production is projected to fall by 1.6% from one year earlier to 15.2 million tonnes in 2024. Yield is anticipated to increase to 167.8 bushels per acre (+3.7%), while harvested area is expected to fall to 3.6 million acres (-5.2%).
In Ontario, the largest corn-for-grain-producing province, production is expected to decrease to 9.6 million tonnes (-3.8%) because of lower harvested area (-4.7% to 2.1 million acres), offsetting higher yields (+1.0% to 178.7 bushels per acre).
Production in Quebec is projected to rise by 8.6% from 2023 to 3.6 million tonnes in 2024. Yields are expected to increase by 10.5% to 163.6 bushels per acre, while harvested area is anticipated to decrease by 1.6% to 873,800 acres.
In Manitoba, production is expected to fall by 6.5% to 1.7 million tonnes because of lower anticipated harvested area (-11.9% to 482,400 acres) offsetting higher expected yields (+6.2% to 136.3 bushels per acre).
Soybean production is expected to rise
Nationally, soybean production is projected to increase by 3.1% year over year to 7.2 million tonnes in 2024. Yields are expected to rise by 1.1% to 46.4 bushels per acre, while harvested area is anticipated to increase by 2.0% to 5.7 million acres.
Production in Ontario is expected to rise by 6.9% to 4.3 million tonnes. Harvested area is projected to increase by 7.6% to 3.1 million acres, while yields are anticipated to edge down 0.6% to 51.1 bushels per acre.
In Manitoba, production is projected to decrease by 8.7% to 1.4 million tonnes. Harvested area is expected to fall by 11.4% to 1.4 million acres. Yields are anticipated to increase by 3.0% year over year to 37.3 bushels per acre.
In Quebec, production is projected to increase by 4.9% to 1.3 million tonnes on higher anticipated harvested area (+6.9% to 1.1 million acres) while yields are expected to decrease 1.9% to 46.0 bushels per acre.
Barley production projected to fall, while oat production expected to rise
Barley yields (-0.3% to 61.0 bushels per acre) are projected to fall in 2024, compared with 2023. Harvested area is anticipated to decrease by 14.3% to 5.7 million acres. As a result, barley production is expected to fall by 14.7% year over year to 7.6 million tonnes in 2024.
Oat production is projected to rise by 14.2% to 3.0 million tonnes. The increase is anticipated to be driven by higher harvested area, which is expected to rise by 14.6% to 2.3 million acres, offsetting lower yields, which are projected to fall by 0.4% year over year to 83.6 bushels per acre.
