If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list – Sign Up Now
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, March 4, 2025 at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
April Feeder Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the March contract. It opened higher and made the session high at 273.50. The high was just below resistance at 273.675 and price proceeded to rollover and crash. It traded down to the low at 269.35 which was just below support at the 21-DMA now at 269.85. Price reversed course and grinded higher to settle at 272.05. The breakdown was follow-through selling after Friday’s breakdown even as the Feeder index strengthened Friday. The fall in the futures saw the discount to the index widen to an unsustainable differential and price bounced back as traders narrowed the discount, in my opinion. The rally created a Hammer candlestick, in my opinion which could see price move higher if it can get above the Monday high and topple resistance at 273.675 and 274.65. A strong order to say the least. The index pulled back on Monday but is still close to the all-time high established at the end of January (281.68). A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 271.00 and then the 21-DMA. Support then comes in at 269.00. If settlement holds, we could test resistance at 273.675 and then 274.65. A rally past here puts the market on a course for resistance at 277.25. We’ll see!…
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 280.58 as of 02/28/2025.
April Live Cattle opened higher and traded to the session high at 193.25. The high was just above resistance at 193.225 and sellers took over and drove price lower, taking out support at the 100-DMA now at 191.625 on its way to the low at 190.10. The selling ceased just below support at 190.075 and proceeded higher, reclaiming the 100-DMA and resistance at 192.05 to settle at 192.25. It formed a Hammer candlestick, potentially putting bullish traders back in control if they can take out the Monday high. The breakdown was follow-through from Friday’s breakdown that saw it make a new low that was toppled on Monday with another new low. Cash also weakened on Friday trading as low as 195.00 on the mandatory report. This pushed sentiment to the brink before traders had enough and the rebound took place. The rally that took place was a welcome sight for produces as a recovery in futures could go a long way to help cash prices bounce back. The packer will try to take down the cash market but the producer could regain control of the market on a change in sentiment in the futures. WE should be seeing a change in the desire for the retail industry to buy beef as we are getting closer to the summer seasonal buying frenzy as they prepare for the spring holidays and warmer weather for grilling. We’ll see!… If price can’t hold settlement, a breakdown could lead to a re-test of support at the 100-DMA and then the Monday low. If price can hold settlement, we could see price test resistance at 193.95 and then the declining 8 & 13-DMAs now at 194.30 and 194.60 respectively. Resistance then comes in at the 50-DMA now at 195.95.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts jumped 2.10 to 313.93 and select increased 0.36 to 302.41. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 11.52 and the load count was 100.
Monday’s estimated slaughter is 102,000, which is above last week’s 95,000 and below last year’s 117,485.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Monday, negotiated cash trade in Nebraska has been mostly inactive on very light demand. Negotiated cash trade in all other regions has been at a standstill. Last week in the Southern Plains, live FOB purchases traded at 197.00. In Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt, live FOB purchases traded at 198.00 and dressed delivered purchases traded at 313.00.
The USDA is indicating no cash trades for live cattle and at 310.00 on a dressed basis (so far).
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
