The USDA’s June 2025 outlook reports mixed shifts in beef production, stronger cattle prices, and increased beef trade activity.
Production Trends
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2025 beef production is now forecast at 26.358 billion pounds, slightly reduced due to slower cow slaughter, despite heavier carcass weights.
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2026 production is expected to increase to 25.275 billion pounds, reflecting more cattle placements and stronger weights.
Cattle Prices at Record Highs
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Slaughter steer prices set eight consecutive weekly records, reaching $238.68/cwt mid-June.
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2025 steer prices are now projected at $221.51/cwt, up $7 from last month.
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Feeder steers saw volatility but hit a record $317.50/cwt in early June. The annual feeder steer price forecast for 2025 is raised to $297.78/cwt.
Beef Trade Expands
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Exports: U.S. beef exports are expected to reach 2.708 billion pounds in 2025, boosted by strong demand in markets like South Korea and Japan. However, shipments to China are down due to registration issues.
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Imports: April imports surged 45% year-over-year, with 2025 import volume forecast at 5.187 billion pounds, driven by strong demand for lean beef amid reduced domestic cow slaughter.
Key Takeaways for Industry
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Despite production adjustments, cattle prices remain historically strong.
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Export volumes are shifting from China to alternative markets like Taiwan and Hong Kong.
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Domestic demand for lean grinding beef is pulling in more imports, even with higher tariffs.
Overall, the beef market remains robust, with strong cattle prices and rising trade activity helping to balance tighter domestic supplies.
🔗 More Information:
Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: June 2025 Download PDF
U.S. red meat and poultry forecasts Download XLSX
