U.S. beef exports in June dropped to their lowest level since 2020, as ongoing trade restrictions with China continue to limit market access. Government trade data compiled from USDA statistics shows June beef shipments totaled 93,928 metric tons (mt), a 15% decline from the same month last year. Export value slid 18% to $769 million — the weakest monthly total in nearly a year and a half.
For the first six months of 2025, beef exports reached 602,221 mt, down 6.5% from the same period in 2024. Export value over the same period fell 6% to $4.92 billion. The sharpest setback came from reduced sales to China, where plant registration issues have prevented most U.S. facilities from shipping beef despite the country’s 32% tariff rate not being prohibitive on its own.
Industry analysts estimate that losing access to China is costing U.S. producers between $150 and $165 per head of fed cattle — roughly $4 billion annually. These losses reflect both the absence of direct sales and the missed price premiums that result when Chinese buyers compete for high-demand cuts such as short plate, top blade, chuck rolls, and short ribs.
Key Market Trends
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South Korea: June shipments were steady year-over-year at 19,310 mt, but value slipped 5% to $181 million. First-half totals were up 8% in volume and 9% in value, supported by a low 2.7% tariff that will be eliminated in 2026.
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Central America: Exports rose 11% in June to 1,479 mt, with value up 37% to $14 million. Guatemala and Costa Rica led the growth, keeping the region on track for a record year.
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Mexico: Volume held steady in June at 17,066 mt, but value climbed 9% to $107.2 million. Year-to-date, shipments to Mexico are slightly lower in both volume and value.
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South America: Led by Chile, Colombia, and Peru, June exports increased 33% to 1,818 mt, with value nearly doubling to $14.2 million.
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Variety Meats: Egypt rebounded with 3,522 mt in June, up 16% in volume and 39% in value. African markets also posted strong gains, with total volume up 73% and value doubling compared to last year.
China’s Decline
June beef exports to China plummeted 77% to just 3,104 mt, with value falling 80% to $24.1 million. For the first half of 2025, exports to China were down 38% in volume and 40% in value compared to the previous year.
Looking Ahead
While the trade impasse with China continues, beef exporters are increasingly turning to emerging and growth markets in Central America, South America, and Southeast Asia to offset losses. In June, beef exports represented 13.1% of total U.S. beef production, down from 15% a year earlier. Export value per head of fed slaughter averaged $392.72 for the month.
