U.S. beef production is forecast to drop 5% in 2026 to 25.140 billion pounds, marking the fourth consecutive annual decline. The latest USDA May 2025 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook attributes the reduction to tighter cattle supplies, fewer feeder cattle imports, and heifer retention for breeding.
Import Ban Impacts
The decline follows USDA’s May 11 suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico due to the spread of New World Screwworm. The ban affects feeder cattle availability, especially in the Southwest, and is expected to remain until containment is achieved.
2025 Production Revised Downward
Beef production for 2025 has been lowered to 26.423 billion pounds due to slower fed cattle marketings. Feedlots are extending feeding periods to add weight, partially offsetting fewer placements. However, carcass weights are expected to plateau in 2026.
Domestic Disappearance and Trade
Per capita beef disappearance is projected to fall 4.6% in 2026 to 56.4 pounds. Imports will remain strong in 2025, but global supply constraints are expected to reduce 2026 imports slightly to 4.975 billion pounds. Exports are forecast to fall 6% to 2.495 billion pounds due to tighter supplies and international competition.
Cattle Prices to Set Records
Tighter supplies are pushing cattle prices higher. In 2026, fed steer prices are forecast at $222.75/cwt and feeder steers at $306.25/cwt. For 2025, prices have been raised, with feeder steers averaging $298.53/cwt—15% above 2024.
Strong Beef Imports in Early 2025
Beef imports surged in March 2025 to 502 million pounds due to pre-tariff trade uncertainty, led by Australia, Brazil, and New Zealand. Quarterly forecasts were adjusted to reflect strong early-year imports and expected declines later in the year.
Exports in March totaled 256 million pounds but are expected to decline later in 2025 due to reduced shipments to China and ongoing supply constraints.
The 2025–2026 outlook points to a tighter cattle market, strong pricing, and shifting trade dynamics amid continued supply challenges.
