U.S. red meat export data for August—released later than usual due to the federal shutdown—shows a mixed picture for the sector. Pork and lamb posted solid gains, but U.S. beef exports continued to trend sharply lower, driven almost entirely by the ongoing market disruption with China.

Beef Exports Decline Again in August

U.S. beef exports totaled 83,388 metric tons in August, a drop of 19% from last year and the lowest monthly volume since mid-2020. Export value also declined, falling 18% to $695.5 million, marking the weakest performance since early 2021.

The downturn continues a challenging year for the beef sector. From January through August, total beef exports were 9.5% lower than the same period in 2024, with value down 9% to $6.37 billion.

China Remains the Most Significant Pressure Point

The steepest declines continue to come from China, where a stalled regulatory process and a wave of plant suspensions have severely restricted access.

• August exports to China fell 94%, totaling just 862 mt.

• Year-to-date exports to China are 52% lower in volume and 53% lower in value.

• Estimated losses from January through October now exceed $832 million, as additional shipments for September and October are also expected to be minimal.

The U.S. Meat Export Federation notes that China has not renewed export registrations for most U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities. Resolving these issues—and restoring compliance with the Phase One Agreement—will be critical for regained access.

Bright Spots: Korea, Central America, and the Caribbean

Despite the China-driven downturn, several markets continue to perform well:

• South Korea: August shipments were nearly steady year-over-year. Value rose 3% to $168 million, and year-to-date exports are 8% higher in volume and 9% higher in value.

• Central America: August exports rose 5% in volume and 50% in value, fueled by stronger demand from Guatemala and Costa Rica.

• Caribbean Region: The Dominican Republic, Bahamas, Jamaica, and others saw higher shipments compared to last year.

• South America: Growth in Chile and a rebound in Colombia supported higher exports.

Shipments were lower to Japan, Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, and the Middle East.

Per-Head Export Value Softens

Beef export value averaged $372.10 per head of fed slaughter in August—down 5% from last year. From January through August, the average was $400.16 per head, a decrease of 3.5%.

Exports accounted for:

• 12.1% of total August production (down one percentage point),

• 9.8% of muscle cuts (also down one point).

Brief Notes on Pork and Lamb

Although the beef sector struggled, pork and lamb helped stabilize the broader red meat export picture:

• Pork: Mexico continued to set shipment records, keeping U.S. pork exports near their 2024 pace despite tariff challenges in China.

• Lamb: August lamb exports rose 58% in volume, led by strong demand in the Caribbean and Canada.

These contrasting trends highlight how trade dynamics vary significantly by species and market.

Market Outlook

The U.S. beef industry is entering the final quarter of 2025 facing a difficult export environment. China’s multi-layered lockout remains the dominant driver of the downturn and must be resolved for any meaningful recovery.

However, strong performance in Korea, the Caribbean, and Central and South America provides a measure of stability. Exporters and analysts will be watching closely for progress on plant re-approvals in China and for opportunities to expand market share in emerging regions.