U.S. beef production expectations have shifted slightly heading into 2026. Heavier carcass weights and stronger cattle prices continue to offset tighter cattle supplies and growing global trade pressure.
Updated slaughter data pushed 2025 beef production to an estimated 26.0 billion pounds. Stronger fourth-quarter output drove the revision. Production still declined 4 percent from 2024 and remains well below the 2022 peak. Even so, carcass weights continue to support overall supply.
Looking ahead, 2026 beef production is forecast at 25.735 billion pounds. This represents a small increase from last month’s outlook. Fewer expected fed cattle marketings will likely reduce output, but heavier carcass weights should more than compensate. As a result, production is projected to decline just 1 percent year over year.
Feedlot Dynamics Signal Tight Supplies Later in 2026
Recent cattle-on-feed data point to continued supply tightness. As of December 1, feedlot inventories totaled 11.727 million head, down 2 percent from last year. Net placements in November fell more than 11 percent, while marketings dropped nearly 12 percent.
Texas posted a sharp year-over-year decline in cattle on feed. Kansas and Nebraska recorded modest increases. Despite these differences, all three states reported higher numbers of cattle on feed for more than 150 days. Slower slaughter rates and delayed marketings throughout 2025 drove that buildup.
These conditions will shape marketings in 2026. Expectations for the first half of the year remain largely unchanged. However, fewer cattle are now expected in the second half, especially in the third quarter. This shift points to tighter supplies later in the year.
Cattle Prices Rebound Strongly Into 2026
Cattle prices rebounded sharply after weakening late in 2025. By mid-January, negotiated live slaughter steer prices had recovered more than 60 percent of their earlier losses. That recovery prompted upward revisions to price forecasts.
The 2026 annual average slaughter steer price is now projected at $235.75 per cwt, up 5 percent from 2025. Analysts raised first-quarter prices based on recent strength. They also increased third-quarter projections as fewer cattle become available for slaughter.
Feeder cattle prices showed even greater resilience. Prices for 750–800-pound feeder steers at Oklahoma City rebounded sharply from November lows. Early-January prices stood nearly $93 above the same week last year. The 2026 annual feeder steer price forecast now sits at $357 per cwt, an 11 percent increase from 2025.
Trade Policy Shifts Reshape Global Beef Flows
Several policy changes will influence beef trade in 2026. A reduced U.S. tariff-rate quota for countries without specific trade agreements filled quickly. That pace increases the likelihood of higher out-of-quota tariffs early in the year.
China’s new beef safeguard measures will also reshape trade flows. Country-specific quotas and steep over-quota tariffs are expected to limit shipments from major exporters. As a result, Brazil, Australia, and Argentina may redirect beef into other markets.
That shift could increase competition for U.S. beef in Japan and South Korea. In turn, it may pressure U.S. exports. At the same time, restricted access to China and Mexico may push additional foreign beef toward the U.S. market.
Mexico recently announced a new quota for beef imports from countries without free trade agreements. That move may limit Brazilian shipments and offer modest support for U.S. exports to Mexico.
Imports Rise as Exports Face Headwinds
Recent trade data confirm diverging trends. U.S. beef exports declined through much of late 2025 and hit a low in September. Shipments rebounded slightly in October.
Exports increased to markets such as Taiwan and Canada. However, shipments to China and South Korea fell sharply. As a result, 2025 beef exports are now estimated at 2.568 billion pounds. The 2026 export forecast drops to 2.425 billion pounds due to stronger global competition.
Imports tell a different story. October volumes declined year over year for the third straight month. Lower shipments from Brazil and New Zealand drove the decrease. Larger imports from Mexico, Canada, Australia, and Argentina offset part of that decline.
Imports from Mexico reached their second-highest monthly level on record. Shifting trade flows and restrictions on live cattle movement supported that increase. Strong domestic demand continues to support high beef prices.
Overall, 2026 beef imports are forecast at 5.525 billion pounds, nearly 3 percent higher than 2025.
Market Outlook
As 2026 unfolds, the beef market continues to balance tight cattle supplies, recovering prices, and evolving global trade conditions. Heavier carcass weights are helping stabilize production. However, reduced placements and export competition suggest tighter supplies and continued price volatility later in the year.
Market Data & Forecasts
Readers looking for additional detail can access the following USDA market outlook reports and data files:
-
Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: January 2026 — Download PDF
-
U.S. Red Meat and Poultry Forecasts — Download XLSX
