Summary:
According to the USDA’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: April 2025, the beef production forecast for 2025 is slightly raised to 26.7 billion pounds, up 15 million pounds from last month’s estimate. The upward revision is primarily due to heavier carcass weights offsetting a slower pace of cattle slaughter.
Key Highlights:
📈 Production & Weights
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Fewer steers and heifers are expected to be processed, but carcass weights have reached record highs.
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The first quarter saw the heaviest fed cattle weights for this time of year, with steers and heifers making up the largest proportion of the slaughter mix since 2006.
💲 Cattle Prices
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Feeder steer prices (750–800 lbs) are forecast at $281.03/cwt, up 12% year-over-year.
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Slaughter steer prices are forecast at $205.51/cwt, nearly 10% above 2024 levels.
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March saw an early spring price peak of $212.76/cwt supported by tight supplies and strong wholesale beef demand.
🌎 Trade Outlook
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Exports are lowered to 2.685 billion pounds (down 11% from 2024) due to:
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A drop in export facility registrations with China
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Retaliatory tariffs adding to the existing 12% rate
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Imports are revised down to 4.860 billion pounds, still nearly 5% above 2024.
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High early-year volumes from Brazil and Australia boosted totals
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New tariffs and quota limitations are expected to raise import costs moving forward
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🔍 Market Factors
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Feeder cattle placements in feedlots fell 15% early in the year due to reduced imports from Mexico.
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The tight supply of cattle continues to support price strength despite some week-to-week volatility.
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Wholesale beef prices are showing unusual strength ahead of the spring grilling season.
Access the Full Report:
📄 USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: April 2025 (LDP-M-370)
📊 U.S. red meat and poultry forecasts (Download XLSX)
