Source: USDA
Farm Sector Profits Forecast To Fall in 2024
Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast at $116.1 billion in calendar year 2024, a decrease of $39.8 billion (25.5 percent) relative to 2023 in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) dollars. This follows a forecast decrease of $29.7 billion (16.0 percent) from 2022 to $155.9 billion in 2023. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to decrease $43.1 billion (27.1 percent) in 2024 relative to 2023. With this expected decline, net farm income in 2024 would be 1.7 percent below its 20-year average (2003–22) of $118.2 billion and 40.9 percent below the record high in 2022 in inflation-adjusted dollars.
Net cash farm income is forecast at $121.7 billion in 2024, a decrease of $38.7 billion (24.1 percent) relative to 2023 (not adjusted for inflation). This follows a forecast decrease of $41.8 billion (20.7 percent) from 2022 to 2023. When adjusted for inflation, 2024 net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $42.2 billion (25.8 percent) from 2023. In 2024, net cash farm income is forecast to be 13.7 percent below its 2003–22 average of $141.0 billion and 43.2 percent below the record high in 2022. Net cash farm income encompasses cash receipts from farming as well as cash farm-related income (including Federal Government payments) minus cash expenses. It does not include noncash items (including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings) reflected in the net farm income measure.
Cash receipts from the sale of agricultural commodities are forecast to decrease by $21.2 billion (4.2 percent, in nominal terms) from 2023 to $485.5 billion in 2024. Total crop receipts are expected to decrease by $16.7 billion (6.3 percent) from 2023, led by lower receipts for corn and soybeans. Total animal/animal product receipts are expected to decrease by $4.6 billion (1.9 percent), following declines in receipts for eggs, turkeys, cattle/calves, and milk.
Also contributing to lower forecast net income in 2024 are lower direct Government payments and higher production expenses. Direct Government payments are forecast to fall by $1.9 billion (15.9 percent) from 2023 to $10.2 billion in 2024. This decrease is expected largely because of lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance in 2024 relative to 2023. Meanwhile, total production expenses, including operator dwelling expenses, are forecast to increase by $16.7 billion (3.8 percent) to $455.1 billion in 2024. Livestock/poultry purchases and labor expenses are expected to see the largest increases in 2024 relative to 2023.
Average net cash farm income for farm businesses is forecast to decrease 27.2 percent from 2023 to $72,000 per farm in 2024 (in nominal terms). All nine USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Farm Resource Regions are expected to see average net cash farm income fall in 2024 relative to 2023, with farm businesses located in the Northern Great Plains region expected to see the largest decline. When grouped by commodity specialization, all farm businesses specializations are likewise forecast to see lower average net cash income in 2024. Farms specializing in wheat are expected to see the largest percentage decline and those specializing in cotton expected to see the largest dollar decline relative to 2023.
Farm sector equity is expected to increase by 4.7 percent ($166.2 billion) from 2023 to $3.74 trillion in 2024 in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase 4.7 percent ($193.2 billion) to $4.28 trillion in 2024 following expected increases in the value of farm real estate assets. Farm sector debt is forecast to increase 5.2 percent ($27.0 billion) to $547.6 billion in 2024. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to worsen slightly from 12.73 percent in 2023 to 12.78 percent in 2024. Working capital is forecast to fall 16.6 percent in 2024 relative to 2023.
Get the full 2024 forecasts for farm sector income or see all data tables on farm income indicators.
Median Income of Farm Operator Households Forecast To Increase in 2023, Marginally Decrease in 2024
Median total farm household income is forecast to have increased to $99,523 in 2023. That is a nominal increase of 4.3 percent (a 0.7-percent increase after inflation) between 2022 and 2023. In 2024, median total farm household income is forecast to decrease to $99,445. That is a nominal decrease of 0.1 percent (a decrease of 2.2 percent after inflation) between 2023 and 2024.
Farm households typically receive income from farm and off-farm sources. Median farm income earned by farm households is forecast to have increased in 2023 to -$542 from -$849 in 2022 and forecast to decrease to -$1,198 in 2024. Many farm households primarily rely on off-farm income. Median off-farm income in 2023 is forecast at $84,224, an increase of 3.8 percent (0.2 percent after inflation) from $81,108 in 2022. Median off-farm income in 2024 is forecast to increase to $86,555, an increase of 2.8 percent from 2023 (0.6 percent after inflation). Since farm and off-farm income are not distributed identically for every farm, median total income will generally not equal the sum of median off-farm and median farm income.
See the Farm Household Income and Characteristics data product tables for financial statistics of farm operator households.
