The Canadian economy faced challenges in November, with unemployment rising to 6.8%, surpassing expectations, and GDP growth slowing to 1% in Q3 2024. The Bank of Canada responded with its fifth consecutive interest rate reduction, lowering the key rate by 175 basis points year-to-date. Inflation, at 2% in October, remains within the Bank’s target range, and food costs are projected to increase in 2025, particularly in the meat category.
Key highlights from the Canada Beef Domestic Market Report Q4 include:
Retail Trends
- Beef Prices: Retail beef prices averaged $21.66/kg in October, 10% higher year-over-year. Ground beef saw a 14% increase, while top sirloin rose by 22%.
- Protein Comparisons: Retail pork and chicken prices were lower than last year, with beef-to-pork and beef-to-chicken price ratios narrowing slightly but remaining above long-term averages.
- Food Price Inflation: Canada’s Food Price Report 2025 predicts a 4-6% increase in meat prices, outpacing other food categories.
Production and Imports
- Domestic Beef Production: Year-to-date production is down 2% from 2023, driven by reduced slaughter volumes despite higher carcass weights.
- Imports: Beef imports increased 9% in volume and 17% in value, with significant contributions from Australia (+64%) and New Zealand (+38%). Imports from the U.S. and Brazil declined.
Economic and Demographic Factors
- Population Growth: Canada’s population grew by 2.4 million (6%) over two years, creating competition for steady beef supplies and driving prices to record highs.
- Dietary Trends: Research indicates dietary shifts among immigrants, balancing traditional habits with new Canadian food options.
Foodservice and Wholesale Insights
- Restaurant Sales: Total restaurant sales rose 2.8% in Q3 2024, led by fast food (+5%).
- Wholesale Production: Slaughter volumes are down, but heavier carcass weights have supported resilient production levels.
For more details, read the full Canada Beef Domestic Market Report Q4 here.
