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November Feeder Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the October contract. It opened lower, traded to the low at 349.125 and then rallied into late morning to the high at 355.00. It pulled back then worked higher to settle near the high at 354.475. The open tested support at 350.20 and the rising 50-DMA now at 348.725. The rally stalled above just resistance at 354.55 and settled just below it. Feeder Cattle had another volatile week as the early week saw a strong rally as the New World Screwworm was reported to be within 70 miles of the US border all but insuring that the border with Mexico will remain closed for an indefinite future as Mexico struggles to hold back the advance of the screwworm towards the US. It seems there were cattle brought north from southern Mexico to a feedlot that was infected with the screwworm. The Mexicans spotted it early and were able to prevent catastrophe from developing. This is why it important for the US to keep the border closed with Mexico in my opinion. Producers looking to sell their cattle will bring them north from down south where the fly is active. If the border were open, then we could see southern cattle from Mexico brought here and who knows what that would lead to… The early rally also had to do with the US announcing they would announce a plan to increase the cattle supply in the US. They said they would make announcements during the week identifying their plans. Rumors swirled and bulls bought the market. However, it stalled at the 78.6% retracement level and with no further info from the government, the market sold off hard, taking out the low of the rally candle as traders seeing we are nearing month end, started taking profits and the market tanked. The price action on Friday took out the Thursday low and then a rally into the weekend ensued as the Feeder Index continued higher, creating a steep futures discount that led to a narrowing of that discount, in my opinion. The government comments made this a tough week for producers in my opinion as promising information and not putting it out in the public eye created quick triggered traders reacting to any rumor that they heard, in my opinion. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price retest support at 250.20 and the rising 50-DMA. Support then comes in at 344.675. If price can press forward above resistance at 354.55, it could test resistance at the flattening 21-DMA now at 356.35. Resistance then comes in at 358.875.
The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 365.04 as of 09/25/2025.
December Live Cattle opened lower and traded to the session low at 232.175. The low pushed through and tested support at 232.75. It reversed course and rallied to the high by late morning at 235.125. The rally stalled at the 21-DMA now at 235.20. It pulled back and settled at 234.30. The price action for the week was similar to the Feeder price action as it followed the Feeders higher on the screwworm news and lower on the lack of news from the USDA. With the cutouts continuing to get hammered this week, the packer was able to get more cash concessions from producers, taking price lower for the fifth week in a row, keeping producers on their heels. The weakening cutout has many believing the top is in the market as fears grow that the consumer has been stretched too thin and are moving away from beef to the cheaper pork and chicken arenas. The packer is once again tapering the slaughter numbers as their margins have fallen apart and have been more determined in their efforts to pressure cash prices. Weights are rising and will likely continue higher into the fall, giving packer more production from fewer cattle slaughtered. The north is also dropping while the south remains fairly stable, leading to a turnaround with the south getting better pricing from the packer than the north. The view is there are enough cattle up north and the packer has been able to leverage that into lower prices as producers feel the pressure from the cattle on feed report that continues to show good numbers in most areas other than Texas. We’ll see!… A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at 232.75. Support then comes in at rising 50-DMA now at 231.375. If price can take out the 21-DMA, it could move towards resistance at 238.125.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 0.54 to 371.43 and select decreased 1.01 to 352.44. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 18.99 and the load count was 95.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 88,000, which is above last week’s 87,000 and below last year’s 115,794. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 1,000, which is below last week’s 5,000 and last year’s 9,953. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 555,000, which is above last week’s 552,000 and below last year’s 616,922.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: Thus far on Friday negotiated cash trade was inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains. The latest establishment market in the Southern Plains was on Thursday with live purchases in the Texas Panhandle at 237.00 and from 235.00-237.00 in Kansas on a light test. Trade was light on moderate demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. In Nebraska compared to Thursday, a few live purchases traded 3.00 higher at 235.00. On Thursday in Nebraska dressed purchases traded at 365.00. The latest established market in the Western Cornbelt was on Thursday with live purchases from 231.00-233.00, mostly at 232.00 and dressed purchases at 365.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 230.00 – 237.00 and from 360.00 – 365.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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