Market Outlook

268

Source: USDA

Summary

Beef/Cattle: Drought continues to have a role in the timing of cattle slaughter. Based on stronger expected pace of fed cattle and beef cow slaughter in late 2022, the production forecast for this year is fractionally higher than last month. The 2023 beef production outlook is raised on greater expected marketings in early 2023 as more calves are expected to be placed in feedlots in second-half 2022. The cattle price forecast for fourth-quarter 2022 is adjusted higher, mainly on current price strength and a stronger anticipated pace of fed cattle slaughter. Calf prices are lowered for 2022 as feed prices are projected higher. Record exports in August were above expectations, raising the 2022 forecast. The outlook for 2023 exports is increased on stronger expected demand from Asia. The 2022 outlook for imports is lowered on third-quarter data, but the 2023 forecast is raised on larger available supplies from Brazil and Australia than were expected last month.

Domestic Use of Broilers and Pork Forecast To Increase While Beef Supply Falls

Total domestic use is calculated by subtracting exports and ending stocks from total supply (beginning stocks, imports, and production). These calculations can be found on an annual basis on page 32 of the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Domestic use of beef is forecast to increase very slightly in 2022 but to decline sharply in 2023 as the U.S. cattle herd shrinks, a result of drought and high feed costs. Pork use is on the rise in 2022 as imports increase and exports fall, though production isn’t forecast to grow. In 2023, pork use is forecast to increase due to increased production and imports, and declining exports. Use of broiler meat is projected to rise significantly in 2022, as production and imports climb and exports decline compared to 2021. Broiler use is expected to increase again in 2023, but by a smaller margin. Turkey meat is on the decline in 2022 as the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak has had an outsize impact on the industry. However, it is forecast to bounce back in 2023.

Bar chart of Year-over-year change in projected total domestic use of meat, by type

 

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