U.S. beef exports declined significantly in May 2025, driven primarily by sharp reductions in shipments to China. According to data from the USDA and U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), export volumes and values reached some of their lowest levels in nearly five years, reflecting ongoing trade barriers and market uncertainty.
China’s Market Access Issues Lead to Steep Drop
The most dramatic decline came from China, where beef exports plunged 91% in volume and 90% in value compared to a year earlier. Through the first five months of the year, exports to China fell 31% in volume to 51,418 metric tons, and 32% in value to $449.3 million.
The drop stems from multiple trade obstacles, including high tariffs—temporarily lowered in May but still restrictive—and the failure to renew plant and facility registrations, which has left most U.S. beef ineligible for export to China. With tariffs set to rise again in August if no progress is made in negotiations, many exporters are reassessing their plans for the Chinese market.
Global Export Totals Reflect Overall Pressure
In May, total U.S. beef exports reached 97,266 metric tons, down 12% from the same month in 2024. Export value declined 11.5% to $798.7 million. These were the lowest monthly totals since mid-2020. Year-to-date (January through May), beef exports were down 5% in volume and 3% in value compared to last year.
South Korea and Central America Offer Stability
Despite setbacks in China, demand remained strong in South Korea. May exports to Korea jumped 40% year-over-year to 25,228 metric tons—the highest monthly total since March 2023. Export value reached $233 million, up 39%. Year-to-date, Korea has imported 106,867 metric tons of U.S. beef, valued at $1.02 billion, up 10% and 12%, respectively.
Central America also provided some relief. While May volumes increased 4%, export value surged 36% to $18.5 million. Guatemala led regional demand, supported by solid growth in Costa Rica and Panama. For January through May, exports to Central America rose 8% in volume and 31% in value.
Mixed Performance in Other Markets
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Japan: May exports rose 4% in volume (21,791 mt) but fell 5% in value ($156 million). Year-to-date, exports were slightly behind 2024 levels.
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Mexico: Shipments declined 12% in volume and 10% in value in May. For the year, exports to Mexico are down 8% in volume and 4% in value.
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Taiwan: May exports dropped 16% in volume and 13% in value, though year-to-date value was up 1% despite a 7% decline in volume.
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South America: Modest growth in Chile and Peru helped boost May exports, though overall volume to the region remains slightly down for the year.
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Middle East and Africa: The UAE and Cote d’Ivoire showed strong growth. May beef exports to Africa rose 7% in volume and 18% in value, with Cote d’Ivoire recording its highest monthly total since 2017.
Export Share of Beef Production Slightly Lower
Beef exports accounted for 13.4% of total U.S. production in May, down slightly from 13.8% a year earlier. Muscle cuts made up 11.3% of production, compared to 11.4% last year. Export value averaged $406.05 per head of fed slaughter, nearly unchanged from last year—though value from exports to China dropped sharply from $66 to just $7.40 per head.
Outlook: Diversification More Important Than Ever
The May data underscores the growing importance of diversified markets for the U.S. beef industry. While exports to China remain constrained by trade and regulatory hurdles, countries like South Korea, Guatemala, and others in Central America are helping stabilize export volumes. Industry stakeholders continue to monitor trade negotiations with China closely, especially as tariff increases loom later this summer.
