U.S. beef exports fell sharply in September, reaching their lowest monthly volume in more than five years. The drop reflects a combination of reduced access to China, softer demand in several key Asian markets, and lower domestic production, according to newly released USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).
China Access Disruptions Drive Steep Declines
September beef exports totaled 80,835 metric tons, down 22% from last year and the smallest monthly total since June 2020. Export value also fell 22%, landing at $660.9 million, the lowest since early 2021.
Shipments to China — one of the industry’s most important growth markets in recent years — have nearly disappeared. September exports dropped 96%, with value falling 98% from a year ago. Through the first three quarters of 2025, exports to China were down more than half, as trade frictions persist and access for U.S. facilities remains limited.
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is currently reviewing China’s adherence to its Phase One commitments, adding further uncertainty as the investigation continues.
Performance Mixed Across Other Export Destinations
Even excluding China, September exports were 11% lower year-over-year. Shipments to other major Asian markets also softened, including Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, and Canada.
However, several regions posted gains in 2025:
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South Korea remained the leading value destination, with January–September exports up 5% in both volume and value.
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Central America saw export value surge 31% for the year, led by Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, and Belize.
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The Caribbean recorded higher export value despite lower volume, with demand growth in the Bahamas, Dominican Republic, and Jamaica.
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Africa also logged strong year-to-date gains in export value, driven by markets such as Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco, and Gabon.
Still, these positive regions were not large enough to offset steep losses elsewhere.
Year-to-Date Exports Reflect Broader Downward Trend
From January through September, U.S. beef exports totaled 856,023 metric tons, an 11% decline from the same period last year. Export value slipped 10% to $7.03 billion.
Lower beef production in 2025 also contributed to reduced export availability. With tighter cattle supplies and continued global competition — particularly from Brazil and Australia — U.S. exporters are navigating a more challenging environment than in recent years.
Export Share of Production Continues to Erode
September beef export value averaged $337.21 per head of fed slaughter, down significantly from last year. Exports accounted for:
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10.9% of total U.S. beef production
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8.8% of muscle cuts
Both percentages fell well below September 2024 levels.
Year-to-date, exports made up 12.9% of total production and 10.7% of muscle cuts — each down roughly one percentage point.
Looking Ahead: Market Access Questions and Global Competition
With the year’s final quarter underway, the sector faces continued headwinds:
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China’s near-halt in purchases
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Strong competition from Brazil in Mexico
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Currency challenges in Japan
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Uncertainty around 2026 import licensing in key Southeast Asian markets
At the same time, demand strength in regions like Korea, Central America, and parts of the Caribbean illustrates that opportunities remain — but will require ongoing market access efforts and competitive pricing.
