Based on findings from Domestic Market Report | Q3 2025, Canada’s beef sector is navigating high prices, shifting trade flows, and resilient consumer demand despite tight supplies and economic uncertainty.
Beef Demand and Retail Prices
Retail beef prices averaged $24.50/kg in recent market trends, up 9% from last year and 23% above the five-year average. Ground beef saw the sharpest rise (+19%), while rib cuts held steady (+1%). By July, beef prices reached $26/kg, widening the gap with pork ($10.12/kg) and chicken ($10.07/kg).
Despite these price levels, demand stayed firm. Net supplies grew 5% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, supported by strong imports that offset lower domestic production. Consumers are adjusting, though affordability slipped — in July, Canadians could purchase just 3.06 lbs of beef per hour worked, the lowest since tracking began in 2017.
Foodservice and Wholesale Momentum
Beef’s role in foodservice remained strong. Overall restaurant sales climbed 7% at mid-year, with limited-service outlets leading the growth (+8%). Menu inflation was most pronounced at fast-food and take-out restaurants (+4.6%), reflecting pressure from higher beef input costs.
Wholesale markets showed surprising strength. Choice cutouts averaged US$352/cwt year-to-date, up 15% from 2024. August saw another rally, pushing prices close to US$400/cwt. Trim demand was the main driver: lean 85% trim rose US$30/cwt and fatty 50% trim surged 41% compared to last year.
Beef Production and Herd Dynamics
Canadian beef production through late August was down 5% from last year and 7% below the five-year average. Both fed and non-fed slaughter volumes were weaker, though heavier heifer carcass weights boosted quality grading, increasing supplies of Prime and AAA beef.
The national herd continues to consolidate, a process expected to last one to three years. This signals tighter beef availability through at least 2027, keeping imports essential to maintain market stability.
Imports and Global Trade
From January to July 2025, Canadian beef imports rose 23% in volume and 27% in value. Major increases came from Argentina (+305%), New Zealand (+78%), Australia (+51%), Brazil (+35%), and the U.K. (+23%). Imports from the U.S. fell 9%.
Global suppliers are capitalizing on Canada’s premium pricing for lean manufacturing beef, though trade flows remain under U.S. scrutiny to avoid tariff-related displacement. Imports are expected to stay historically large as domestic production remains tight.
✅ Beef Market Takeaways
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Retail beef prices remain elevated, but demand is holding.
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Foodservice growth reflects beef’s continued consumer draw despite higher menu costs.
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Wholesale strength is driven by trim markets, with August marking near-record highs.
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Domestic production remains under pressure, with herd consolidation limiting expansion.
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Imports are filling supply gaps, with volumes from Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand sharply higher.
