According to Rabobank’s North America Agribusiness Review (October 2025), tight cattle supplies remain the defining feature of the beef sector as strong consumer demand continues to test limited production capacity across North America.
Fewer Cattle Moving Through Plants
Through September, cattle slaughter totals trailed last year by roughly 7%, marking another step in the contraction that began during liquidation phases earlier in the cycle. Fewer feeders in the system are keeping throughput low and live cattle prices high.
Firm Retail Prices, Resilient Demand
Beef prices remain near record highs — averaging about US $9.18 per pound in August. Despite economic uncertainty, consumers continue to pay premium prices for fresh beef, reinforcing its reputation as a high-value protein choice.
Packers Feel the Squeeze
Processors continue to operate within narrow margins as cattle costs stay elevated. While wholesale beef values have softened slightly, profitability remains under strain. A more balanced environment may not return until herd rebuilding increases supply.
Feeders Position for Recovery
Feed prices have steadied, offering some predictability for backgrounders and feedyards. With limited feeder inventories, regional auctions are seeing competitive bidding — early signs that operators are preparing for the next rebuilding phase.
Trade Holds Ground
Exports have dipped modestly compared with 2024, largely reflecting tighter domestic availability rather than weaker demand. Global buyers remain committed to North American beef for its consistent quality and reliability.
Outlook: Supply Pressure Persists into 2026
Tight supplies are expected to persist through the first half of 2026, with gradual improvement as herd rebuilding begins. The pace of recovery will depend on weather, feed costs, and producer confidence. For now, firmness in both live cattle and retail markets supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for the year ahead.
