If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list – Sign Up Now
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, November 3, 2025 at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
January Feeder Cattle opened higher and rallied to the high at 336.75.It reversed course and broke down to the low at 326.825. It rebounded off the low and settled at 331.90. The early rally was likely continued liquidation after a lengthy decline that saw month end squaring of positions. The breakdown to the low probably was the realization that USDA Secretary Rollins was going to meet with the Mexican President and its Ag Minister on Monday. That sparked renewed fears that the border was going to reopen and a horde of Mexican cattle was going to flow into Texas yesterday. The market was slammed on those fears until a late day surge took price back into the middle of the Friday range. This back and forth with Mexico, creates more uncertainty in the market after their Minister said there was no timetable for the reopening of the border. This puts fear back in the market and could limit any potential rallies in Feeders until we know with more certainty what will happen with the border. When and if the border opens to Mexican cattle could dampen any positive psychology producers have maintained through this supply crunch. This could prevent herd rebuilding if producers get frustrated and wary about future pricing of cattle. Most remember what happened at the last cycle and the repeated hammering of cattle prices during other phases that were out of the producer’s control and the packer taking advantage of those situations (pandemic, fire, etc.…) causing losses for the producer. And also, artificially low prices. If the border reopens early and the screwworm gets to the US, I think it would be politically bad for the government. Why was the border closed in the first place? They could make up any story to say the Mexicans are pushing the screwworm back towards Panama but, would anyone believe the government. You would likely see cattle make its way from areas that are screwworm hotspots as ranchers want to sell their cattle and are desperate to try anything. This is a danger and if this happens and the screwworm gets closer to the US, what they close the border again? Keep the screwworm in Mexico and push it back towards Panama, follow your original plan and get those facilities open to produce sterile flies. They are looking to experiment with mobile labs to produce flies, I guess going directly to hotspots but that also brings issues if the lab fails and flies escape into the landscape causing more issues. It could also be a positive if it works. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 329.075. Support then comes in at 326.875. If price stabilizes, we could retest resistance at 335.975 and the 337.575.
The Feeder Cattle Index fell and is at 347.25 as of 10/30/2025.
December Live Cattle opened higher and made the high at 232.25. Price reversed and traded down the to the low at 227.025. It turned higher and rallied into the close to settle in the middle of the range at 229.675. Live cattle followed Feeders lower as a potential reopening of the border took over traders’ thoughts as we ended the damaging month of October. Any reopening of the border will likely bring in light numbers of cattle initially as inspectors make sure there aren’t any contaminated cattle coming across the border. Cash prices recovered some of their losses on Friday as Kansas reported some trades at 235.00. After a strong rally in the cutout, retailers shied away and prices ended lower for Friday. The crash in cattle prices and the weekly strength in cattle was a boon for the packer as even with tight supplies they always manage to get things going in the direction that is beneficial to them and negative for the producer, as they take advantage of any negative news that knocks down futures prices and really has no effect on cash supplies in my opinion. The President’s comments didn’t have any immediate effect on cutouts as they rallied into Thursday but it sure crashed cattle prices. Now, with Secretary Rollins meeting with Mexico on Monday to further discuss the border, it puts the pressure back on producers backs as the fears grow on a border reopening. What would a border reopen look like? Would it be a flood of cattle or a sprinkling of cattle? A sudden shift in plans for the border doesn’t help the producer who was expecting the closure to last until sterile fly supplies were built enough to push the bug back into Panama. It is a tough situation for Mexico and even Texas but, a screwworm getting into Texas would likely be worse in my opinion. The border was originally shut down in November when it is cold in most places and the fly was still near Panama. It is closer to the US now and everything you read says we are not producing enough sterile flies to push it back and you have instances where a producer from the “forbidden” area brings cattle north. Not a good scenario and it may get worse as more will likely try to bring cattle north, in my opinion. We’ll see!… A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at the rising 100-DMA now at 228.975. Support then comes in at 226.60. If price can retake resistance at 230.425, it could retest resistance at 232.75. Resistance then comes in at 235.625.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts dipped 0.14 to 378.13 and select decreased 0.87 to 358.65. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 19.48 and the load count was 115.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 98,000, which is below last week’s 110,000 and last year’s 118,263. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 4,000, which is below last week’s 17,000 and last year’s 6,330. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 559,000, which is below last week’s 573,000 and last year’s 615,990.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been limited on light to moderate demand in all feeding regions. There have been a few live purchases in Nebraska at 232.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in Nebraska was Tuesday with live purchases at mostly 230.00 and Monday with dressed purchases from 355.00-360.00. There have been a few live purchases in the Western Cornbelt at 230.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was Tuesday with live purchases at 230.00 and last week with dressed purchases at 372.00 on a light test. The last established market in the Texas Panhandle was last week at 238.00. The last established market test in Kansas was last week at 238.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 228.00 – 235.50 and from 355.00 – 365.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
